To President-elect Barak Obama when he wakes up on January 21st? He has promised a health care reform, tax cuts for 95% of Americans, and end to the war in Iraq, a solution to the current economic downturn, energy independence, more jobs and a solution to global warming. In other words he has made promises he cannot possibly keep even with the co-operation of Democratic majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives. First, the current economic crisis is global, not just national and I am not convinced that any government action will alleviate the market correction which has been long overdue. As a matter of fact, I am convinced that the actions of Paul Volker, Ben Bernake and Allen Greenspan have intensified the downturn by postponing its inevitability. Artificially lowering interest rates in order to stave off recession has only added to the over extension of credit which began with the Clinton era push to make more mortgages available even to those who normally would not qualify.
Next, the War in Iraq. Quite honestly, I don’t know why we still are there except we still have forces in Germany, Italy and Japan sixty three years after the end of World War II. Rather than beginning with Iraq, might I humbly suggest that United States troops be brought home from those former Axis powers? Surely they are not an immediate threat to United States security? Surely the reason we had troops stationed in those countries no longer exists? Even the Soviet Union is no more. I say bring the troops home but from friendly countries first.
National health care, now known as Obamacare. I can keep my private, partially employer funded insurance plan or have the government pick up the tab. Now that is a no-brainer. Why would I keep my current insurance when for a pittance, I can get the government to take care of me? I believe that this plan will and untold trillions to the national budget and still not really provide coverage for those who need it. Soon, employers will simply find out that it is less expensive for them to pay higher taxes, pass the cost onto the consumers, who are the ones who really pay business taxes and everyone will be part of the government health care plan. We will see the rationing of treatment as is already happening in Great Britain and Canada and a deterioration of medical services all across the nation. Don’t believe me? Look at what has happened to public education over the last 40 years.
Energy independence? Sure, we can become energy independent with a massive increase in the use of natural gas, coal, oil shale and nuclear energy. Hydrogen? Forget about it. It takes more energy to produce hydrogen than is recovered from burning it. Electric vehicles? Who is going to expend our already nearly overtaxed power grid? How is the electricity going to be generated? Solar? Solar cells are only about 5% efficient and take huge amounts of energy, toxic materials and specialized technology to manufacture. Wind? OK, but what happens on calm days? Biofuel? Remember that the fossil fuels we are using today were once part of the biomass. Are we really saying that we want to consume 60% of the world’s agricultural output on a per annum basis simply to provide energy? That means that there will be a massive increase in global food prices and massive starvation. Conservation? The United States already produces 50% of the world’s output of goods and services using 25% of the world’s energy with less than 10% of the world’s population. How much more efficient can we be? In other words, the energy problem is not easily solved, there is no quick fix, no matter what President-elect Obama may say.
More jobs? There are always new jobs created as new technologies are developed and old industries fade away. After all, thousands of Americans used to be involved directly or indirectly in the whaling industry. Of course, very few, if any Americans are employed in the whaling industry any longer, except as protesters. My point is that jobs cannot be created by government fiat unless they are government jobs. Most new jobs are created by small companies who find a new niche in the market to exploit or a new more efficient way to produce goods and services driving their competition out of business. It is the market which creates jobs, not the government.
Global warming? Despite the best efforts of the media, scientific and political elites who wish to keep this crisis in the fore front of public consciousness in order to gain power, profit and government largess, the simple fact is that there is no real evidence that the Earth is getting dramatically warmer on the whole nor is there any real consensus as to the cause of certain recent dramatic climatological phenomena. Some areas of the Earth are warming, some are cooling. Certain glaciers are receding and other are expanding. There are more storms in some areas and less in others. There are droughts in some places and more rain in others. Are these events man made? No one really knows. Is this trend transitory or more permanent? Got me. I do know that those who predict doom and gloom have a vested interest in predicting doom and gloom. Doom and gloom sells newspapers, magazines, radio and television airtime, elicits more grants for research and produces legislation that increases the power of government over the individual and favors certain industries over others. Call me a cynic but I say follow the money and you will find the real cause of global warming.
So, what will President-elect Obama face when he wakes up on January 21st? A political minefield, one from which he may find it impossible to extricate himself or his party.